MORNING PENS BUZZ
NHL PLAYOFF RACE
1. NY Rangers, 107 Points, ROW 46, 4 GR
2. Washington Capitals, 99 points, ROW 39, 2 GR
2. NY Islanders, 98 Points, ROW 39, 3 GR
1. Montreal Canadiens, 106 Points, ROW 42, 2 GR
2. Tampa Bay Lightning, 104 Points, ROW 46, 2 GR
2. Boston Bruins, 95 points, ROW 37, 3 GR
1. Pittsburgh Penguins, 95 points, ROW 38, 3 GR
2. Detroit Red Wings, 95 Points, ROW 37, 3 GR
3. Ottawa Senators, 93 Points, ROW 34, 3 GR
IMPORTANCE OF ROW
With one week to go in the regular season, the Pittsburgh Penguins playoff chance percentage, remains above 90%, 93.5% to be exact, via sportsclubstats, and a big reason for that is because of ROW, “Regulation + Overtime Wins.” ROW is the first tiebreaker followed by head-to-head.
The Penguins got some help last night in Ottawa losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs in a shootout. It wasn’t a fatal loss for Ottawa in getting a point, but the Senators having a ROW of 34, in reality puts them three points behind the Penguins, Red Wings, and Bruins in the wildcard race, as all three teams would own the tiebreaker over Ottawa.
Meanwhile, a regulation win for the Penguins vs the Senators Tuesday night, clinches a playoff spot for Pittsburgh as Ottawa would be unable to pass Pittsburgh in points or beat them in a tiebreaker due to ROW.
The Senators not getting that second point last night means they need a regulation win vs Pittsburgh, and likely to go 2-0-1 to get in.
The wildcard race isn’t the only area where ROW could become very important. In the race for the Atlantic Division title, the Canadiens have no chance of winning a potential tiebreaker with Tampa Bay Lightning.
FIRST ROUND OPPONENT PERCENTAGES FOR PENGUINS
The Penguins have backed themselves into a corner where if they get in, they’re likely looking at a wildcard spot and a first round matchup with the New York Rangers or Montreal Canadiens/Tampa Bay Lightning.
For the Penguins to finish second or third in the division, they will likely have to go 3-0 and that still probably won’t get it done. Even if the Penguins go 3-0 to finish the season, they still have just a 47% chance to finish third.
Overall, the Penguins are listed as having a 5% chance of finishing second place in the Metropolitan Division and 16% for third place.
Round 1 Opponents
Montreal Canadiens – 38%
New York Rangers – 17%
Tampa Bay Lightning – 16%
Washington Capitals – 13%
New York Islanders – 8%