Scouting Penguins – Blue Jackets

For those who weigh playoff projections from advanced stats as the biggest barometer in predicting how each playoff series will go, last year when the Penguins entered the post-season all of the underlying numbers/models pegged the Penguins as the Stanley Cup favorite and they were a case where the advanced stats crowd had their day in the sun with the Penguins hoisting Lord Stanley in June.

Now it’s a bit of a reversal for the Penguins.

The eye test says they are one of the top Stanley Cup favorites, while the numbers tell a different story.

Injuries are certainly a factor but the Penguins numbers are nowhere near the levels they were going into last post-season.

While finishing with the second best record in the NHL, in 2015-2016 the Penguins ranked 1st in Corsi % going into the playoffs. This season they rank 2nd in points again in the NHL but are not among the top-10 playoff teams in driving possession.

Over the last 25 games, the Penguins have been middle of the pack and are 15th in Corsi %.

Unlike last year when they were also the President Trophy winners, the numbers/models favor the Capitals in the East this season.

The Capitals are 3rd among playoff teams in SAT 5v5 close% and over the last 25 games have been the second best team in driving possession. The best team in driving possession in the East is the Boston Bruins who some see as a dark horse in the East.

But, is having average possession numbers like the Penguins have had over the last couple months overrated come playoff time when you have one of the NHL’s fastest teams like the Penguins do?

Some old school scouts believe so.

One scout this week told me the Penguins skate so well in hunting the puck and tracking the puck carrier that out-attempting the Penguins isn’t a big deal and won’t be a big deal in this series because the Penguins speed can still dictate the play in all three zones when they don’t have the puck and offensively they create so many high danger chances because of their speed and skill.

Columbus has been the better 5 on 5 team vs the Penguins this season and enter the playoffs with the 7th best SAT 5v5 close% among playoff teams. In the recent contest between the two clubs, Columbus out-shot Pittsburgh 39-27 and had a 60-30 edge in 5v5 shot attempts. Yet, the Penguins speed game limited the high danger chances against and kept the Blue Jackets to the outside.

If the Blue Jackets out-attempt the Penguins in the series, it might not end up being a big deal at all like some will surely try to make it out to be.

Blue Jackets must answer the Penguins advantage down the middle

Many believe this series will be won by the Penguins due to their strength down the middle and that’s understandable. Sidney Crosby – Evgeni Malkin – Nick Bonino – Matt Cullen > Alexander Wennberg – Brandon Dubinsky – Boone Jenner – William Karlsson.

How do the Blue Jackets combat the Penguins strength down the middle?

“Saad, Atkinson, and Foligno have to be special,” an Eastern Conference scout said. [hide] “That’s a good winger group there. Brandon [Saad] is the key. Pittsburgh without Letang will not be as strong in getting the puck out and that’s a vulnerable corps below the dots and along the wall….Columbus has to win puck battles in the trenches and wear Pittsburgh down. It starts with those top guys [Saad, Foligno].”

The Penguins are fully expecting the Blue Jackets to come hard on the Penguins D and how the Penguins combat that could tell the story of the series early on.

If the Penguins are breaking the Blue Jackets forecheck quickly, the opportunity for odd-man rushes will be there and that will force Columbus to adjust and become less aggressive in forechecking the Penguins, going away from their primary strength.

Teams that try to attack the Penguins with pressure from three forwards are often playing with fire.

We’ll certainly be seeing a chess match between Mike Sullivan and John Tortorella.

More pressure on Bobrovsky than Murray

Lots of talk of whether Matt Murray has a short or long leash. Well Marc Andre Fleury hasn’t made consecutive starts in over three months so there’s your answer on how long of a leash Murray has…..It’s a long one.

Sergei Bobrovsky is likely going to win the Vezina Trophy but the pressure is on him to start the series. He’s yet to prove it in the playoffs.

Bobrovsky has an .890 save percentage in 13 career postseason games and often struggles against the Penguins.

The tape the Penguins have studied on Bobrovsky has led to them believing getting traffic in front on him makes him susceptible to tracking the puck on high shots. Having a constant net-front presence is something Penguin coaches have pumped into the players’ heads all week.

Bobrovsky is the type where if he’s seeing the puck clean early on, he will get into a zone and be unstoppable the rest of the night.

A good thing for both clubs in having playoff success.

Both starting goaltenders have an even strength save percentage of .932 or better.

— Prediction: Penguins in six games — [/hide]