Penguins/NHL
Penguins By the Numbers
One of the biggest story lines coming into Round 1 between the Penguins – Rangers was the major advantage the Penguins’ had when it came to just about every advanced stat and it was the backbone of why every data driven person was predicting the Penguins to make quick work of the Rangers in the series.
The series played out quite funny. While it was a quick series, the data didn’t back much up.
5 v 5, New York finished the series with a shot attempt for percentage of 55%, the Penguins 45%, and at least statistically were the superior possession team. According to War-on-Ice, the Rangers were also +22 in scoring chances, 116-94. New York also won 55% of their faceoffs 5 v 5 in the series.
Only three Penguins were over 50% at even strength.
Kris Letang – 52 CF%
Patric Hornqvist – 51 CF%
Conor Sheary – 51 CF%
Individually you had some of the Penguins key depth contributors in the series be possession nightmares at even strength.
Forwards
Matt Cullen – 34%
Bryan Rust – 38%
Tom Kuhnhackl – 32%
On the blueline, the Penguins third pairing was often hemmed in their own end. Ben Lovejoy was 36%, Ian Cole 40%.
We’re the Rangers unlucky? Maybe you can make an argument in Game 1. Basically the advanced stats meant nothing in this series in leading to success for the Rangers and when you get the type of .874 save percentage that the Rangers got, it would not have matter if the Rangers possession numbers were 65-35.
The possession numbers also don’t tell the story at all about performances for particular players in the series.
Matt Cullen who scored the game winning goal in Game 3, assisted on the Penguins’ game winning goal in Game 5, then scored a back breaking goal to put the Penguins up 4-2 in the second period of Game 5, was sensational in clutch moments.
Bryan Rust with a two goal game in Game 5 is the talk of the town today. No one gives a damn that he was under 40% in SAT%.
Tom Kuhnhackl who was on the ice for 34 shot attempts and a whopping 72 against, scored a big shorthanded goal in Game 1 and was solid on the penalty kill and with his wall play at even strength.
Maybe in Round 2 the poor possession numbers among depth players and third pairing D come back to burn the Penguins, it’s certainly a possibility, but in Round 1 it didn’t matter.
7-11 11 Penguins scored in the series with 7 players having at least 2 goals:
Sidney Crosby – 3 Goals
Phil Kessel – 3 Goals
Patric Hornqvist – 3 Goals
Evgeni Malkin: 2 Goals
Matt Cullen: 2 Goals
Bryan Rust: 2 Goals
Conor Sheary: 2 Goals
5: Nick Bonino, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin each led the Penguins with 5 assists in the series
15: Sidney Crosby (8 points) and Evgeni Malkin (7 points) combined for at least 15 points in a series for the first time since the two combined for 20 points vs the Islanders in Round 1 during the 2013 playoffs.
.934 > .874: [hide] Penguins save team percentage (.934), Rangers team save percentage (.874)
PP/PK Percentage: Pittsburgh 127.6% | New York 72.4%
Goal Differential: Pittsburgh +11 (21 Goals, 10 Against)
10-7: Penguins Even Strength Goals (10) – New York Even Strength Goals (7)
Hits: NYR 224 – PIT 143
Rookie Murray 3-0
Matt Murray has joined rare company among all-time rookie goalies who get wins in their first 3 career playoff games pic.twitter.com/MH84BECsA2
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) April 24, 2016
No longer the King?
Lundqvist's GAA not much better than his sv% as he was left to be bombarded by the #Penguins scorers in this series pic.twitter.com/v6ZSTOVMfh
— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) April 24, 2016
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comments with links being moderated now? Too bad I just destroyed yodas inability to grasp that corsi/Fenwick does tell part of the story… bigger than he well ever understand
Hey yoda.. 2009 3rd and 4th in the league in corsi in the final separated by 0.2… 4 wins 2010 3rd in corsi wins, opponent was 15th probably part of the reason they lose 2011 1st and 2nd in Corsi in the finals… 1 wins 2012 found you an outlier… that noted the winner is sitting nicely above the loser at 15th and 18th 2013 1st in Corsi plays and beats 5th 2014 3rd vs 10th again the team with the better number is coming out on top in the big gap 2015 here is a bit of an outlier… Read more »
I certainly agree that they have a part in the game, I just think they can be overblown at times. It’s frustrating taking to someone that constantly cites those numbers and acts like they are the be all end all. I think possession numbers are also more indicative of how successful a system is as opposed to individual success, due to them not rewarding actual goals in any way (at least not corsi /fenwick).
Oh I don’t disagree, I would never make a call on who I expect to win a game based solely on possession.. all other things being equal however I would lean toward the team that is better at controlling the play.
Yeah I mean they are based under the principle that if you have more shots and control the puck more, you’ll do better. Hard to argue that lol. But I just think there are too many other factors in play to put as much stock into it as a lot of people do. Last series we beat the Rangers like a rug but they won the possession battle. I have a ranger fan at work that said the Rangers outplayed the pens and cited possession numbers. I just stopped talking.
I have a bigger problem with the underlying data – who’s recording it? How good are they at doing so? How subjective is it?
I can see that but the same case can be made for a lot of stats too. Hits, giveaways, takeaways, shots themselves can be over or understated and then there is the glorious second assist that comes with controversy. Goals and primary assists are probably the least subjective and they are still fucked up sometimes lol. This is why I find them to be fun to work with and I do think there is some predictability that comes from them but there are far too many intangibles to simply say “A is a better possession team than B therefore A… Read more »
I don’t disagree – but nobody plots out the success of a team by hit-count. These stats end up being the be all and end all to some, and they seem pretty subjective to me.
That’s very true
It’s like yeah, you had better possession numbers, but you also had a goalie who probably cried himself to sleep every night.
Ya that’s a clear breakdown of the stat. I argued that the rags tended to take a lot of shots from 30+ feet most games. That will pad a stat like this as a team that will shoot from anywhere tends to shoot more. Stanch was also bang on in the statement in regards to pucks going straight in as much as they did for the Pens prevent additional shots which could also impact the data.
Does anyone else find it hilarious that Yoda keeps going on about Murray and how he let in no turd goals yet if MAF was in goal he would be screaming that a 3 goals given up in game 5 were turds?I’ve honestly never seen another place were so many stupid people congregate.
Also interesting that he never mentions the 3 or 4 times in Game 5 or the 8-9 times in the series the Pens defense had to bail him out and save pucks from going into an open net after he was beaten.
I’ve noticed.
I figured you, zero, tbj and a few other of the more knowledgeable posters would.
Have you ever been to a Democratic convention?
Why would I go to a Democratic convention?
Not a surprise… Im convinced that MAF must have fucked his mother/sister at the same time or something lol
Hockey in Miami is stupid. I’m glad an old Patrick division team is advancing.
Its like Luongo forgot the play doesnt stop after the first save. Typical Canadian choke job.
Outdueled by Thomas Greiss, lol.
Hilarious!
Luongo=st.blurry.
He has a cup? With whom?
He cried about how tired he was earlier in the series playing 3 games in 4 days….I think he’s spent come double OT and shits the bed.
Luongo gives st blurry a run for his money when it comes to giving up bad untimely goals in the post season. The entire time I knew the 1st good chance the isles had it was game over with that choke artist in net.
Hey yoda, does MAF pay child support? He probably should be.
So typical. The team musters one goal against Thomas frigging Greiss in 5 periods and it’s the goalies fault. Pure fucking yogurt.
It was a turd. You can’t lose on a wraparound!
I don’t care if he corralled the puck, turned around and shot it in his own net. There are 18 other guys in uniform that didn’t do their job for five periods against a backup goaltender. 1 goal in 5 periods isn’t enough. The last person that should be blamed for any part in that loss in ole #1.
“Can’t lose on a wraparound”… because they are not worth as much as a goal from the front of the net? Gretzky carved out a decent career of doing exactly that. Don’t matter how they go in as long as they do.
PS You have to beat Lundqvist 2 – 1… HAVE TOO; we would know that if we didnt finish 10th or 11th… time to blow it up
Another goal by the same Canadian. Good job to put those Panthers out of their misery now we can cancel this big hot dog event between Panthers and Tampax
Hey zero, did you catch double OT in the panther islander game? The panthers dominate, but the 1st good chance the isles get luongo looks horrendous and gets beat on an embarrassing wrap around. Florida dominated possession but who won?
I watched the the yoda islanders dominated the game .if it wasn’t for lou game was over long time ago just. JT alone could’ve scored 4 tonight
Who are the yoda islanders? Does black mario play for them?
It’s the the yoda islanders.
Without getting into all of the fancy stats, it seemed to me the Rags put a ton of pucks on net from the perimeter. Not many point blank chances. The Pens had numerous chances in close and buried a lot of them. I don’t remember Murray needing to make many difficult saves in any of his 3 games.
Murray makes the saves look easy because he is square to the shooters and in perfect position. Give credit where it is due. That kid is on top of his game and reads the play so well he is always set, on his angle, and square.
Tavares with the late goal another Canadian stepping up when game matters
Hope islanders put the Panthers out of their misery soon
Wow what’s the odds I played family feud with my gf online for the first time. And one of the question was a common place where people can have hot dogs. And top answer baseball game second was picnic. Beach ,corner of the street and was another one too I got just top answer right and corner of street needed npl”s help but was busy himself scuffing hot dogs while watching the French player score important goal for the Panthers tonight
Thats a great story. Who won?
Hotdog scuffing champion!
Can we go back to the part of the story about you and your girlfriend playing family feud online.
Haha. Was honestly writing a similar comment when yours popped up.
#bucn #tdbenny
When team gets big lead game 4 and 5 other team will sit back and protect which will make numbers look different. That is why u have to watch the games
Blues were leading 3-1 last night ended up losing 6-3
What a crazy game Wilds vs stars
Wilds
plurals disease
Goaltending is the biggest key in the post season. Which ever team gives up the least amount of turds wins. Murray didn’t let one turd in. That’s what mattered.
Are serious he gave a few just happened the team in front played better and happened to be queen Henrik team wasn’t
At the end of the day, advanced stats are over rated. You don’t get rewarded on the scoreboard by possessing the puck. Its who finished on their chances and what goaltender plays better.
You still need to take shots you fucking idiot… Guess what stats speak specifically to that? Not one person has stated analytics is the end all to be all but you have to be a special kind of dumb to ignore the direct correlation to the top teams, champions and strong corsi/fenwick numbers. If you don’t possess the puck you can’t shoot… The other team can, do the math jerkoff. At least the last sentence was correct but you forgot to add the defences ability to suppress shots and clear loose pucks. Basically the three concepts is called… Wait for… Read more »
Yogurt only finds stats meaningful if they’re a be all and end all. I don’t even know why we tally shots. Just because you take a shot doesn’t mean it goes in. Just because you take a shot doesn’t mean you get rewarded on the scoreboard. Shots are overrated.
Shots are not over rated. Cycling all day abs producing no good chances is over rated. You can’t score along the boards. Who cares who can play keep away better. It’s about scoring and good goaltending
You can’t get scored on when you possess the puck along the boards either you tard.
The pens won in 5. They scored more and had better goaltending. Who cares about Corsi. I saw Mario Lemieux float around for 15 out of his 25 minutes in the neutral zone, have the puck for 5 rushes and put up 5 points. At the end of the day who gives a crap who cycles better. According to your advanced stays, the pens sucked and lost the series.
HAHAHA… yes I have been claiming they are the end all to be all… jesus youre such a fucking tool. I love how you have to continually lie to try and make a point.
Chubby traded yet?
Felt like a blow out to me. Advance stats mean more over large sample sizes
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/odds/futures/
There’s a lot of animosity on the site during the playoffs. I guess is kind if a biproduct of the stupidity.
Hope islanders eliminate the Panthers. Because if Panthers go next round it will be a meaningless series between Tampax vs Panthers only fat fuckss like npl will think there is rivalry between them when there is nothing between those two teams
So much great hockey history in Florida, with excellent fan bases. Hopefully they meet so the hockey world can enjoy hockey, and the atmosphere that surrounds it, at its absolute best. Wouldnt doubt Bettman makes the trip personally to witness the awesome spectacle he created.
What history that most of their existing both teams missed the playoffs majority of the time
Maybe it DOES make more sense to move them to Canada then…
Stan is the moderator
#Gaylivesmatter. Npl10
Is this the first time caps win a series in 6 games with ovi?
Another game with no Canadian scoring shit.
As long as your American npl keeps on scoring on you Stan
Says the creepy weird frog.
DePaoli must not realize that when the puck goes in every time you shoot it, it cuts down on second attempts and effects those shot numbers.
BOOM!
lol a stats article.
You struggling?
No, I choose not to waste my time.
Because it’s over your head. Got it.
Being bitter 24/7 is a rough way to go through life. Relax and enjoy it.
That’s a “yes”
The smart money is on over 60% of the articles being over Simply Dusty’s head
Gaydogg must love this article
Save percentage, PP/PK and goal differential are the only 3 that mattered in this series.
Hope the flyers take their series to 7.
That would be nice. I can’t see the Flyers winning today though. The fact that it even went 6 is pretty incredible considering what happened last game.
They needed Anders Lee.
You’re starting to understand finally. Good boy.
Again with these numbers. At least tiny Thompson was mentioned in the article